Policy briefs

The IAM COMPACT project kicked off in September 2022 and was successfully concluded in August 2025, having implemented an efficient research coordination and management approach, ensuring genuine co-production of scientific knowledge and policy outputs that were continuously aligned with the policy debate. By organising activities around a set of shared core objectives rather than isolated work packages, the project enabled all partners to contribute meaningfully across tasks and where needed, thereby fostering integration, ownership, and interdisciplinary learning. This technical brief outlines the IAM COMPACT management and research integration practice, with the aim is to transform this internal project coordination approach into a replicable framework that helps future modelling research initiatives and policy institutions co-design, jointly manage, evaluate, and co-own complex transdisciplinary collaborations with concrete scientific and societal impact.

This policy briefs builds upon the workshop "Land Use & Renewable Energy", which brought together key stakeholders from institutions including the European Commission (DG AGRI), the European Environment Agency (EEA), Climate Action Network (CAN), IDDRI, and WWF European Policy Office, and examines the potential benefits of integrated energy and land-use policy frameworks and explores how such policies could improve planning, resource efficiency, and sustainability outcomes. 

This policy brief is part of the theme “Modelling Clean Industrial Deal[1]”, which focused on infrastructure investments and steel sector decarbonisation, and produced two modelling studies. The study presented here focuses on steel, both because it is a key sector and because of the availability of modelling tools.
 

This policy brief is part of the theme “Modelling the Clean Industrial Deal”[1] focusing on infrastructure investments towards a greener economy. During the workshop conducted under this theme, we met with stakeholders inter alia from ENTSO-E, IRENA, IEA, Ember, and CAN Europe, and sought their feedback on scenario design, inputs, and projections with regard to two proposed modelling studies.

This policy brief is part of the theme “Citizens in the Transition[1]”, which focused on lifestyle changes in mobility, diets, and housing, household decarbonisation, and distributional impacts of climate policies, and produced three modelling studies. The study presented here evaluates energy transition pathways in the European residential sector including the EU-27 and the United Kingdom (UK).

In this analysis, we develop and apply an innovative integrated modelling framework that enables us to assess how alternative strategies for implementing the current EU climate policy portfolio affect different consumer groups both within and across Member States.

This policy brief outlines Kenya’s opportunities to align energy, land, and water policies with climate and development goals. Despite vast solar, wind, geothermal, and bioenergy resources, the energy system remains heavily fossil-fuel based. Existing frameworks such as Vision 2030, the Energy Act of 2019, the Climate Change Act of 2016, and the Least Cost Power Development Plan (2021–2030) provide a foundation for a transition to a 100% renewable system, which is essential to meet the national target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2035. In the land sector, the government has launched a campaign to plant 15 billion trees by 2032, aiming for 30% tree cover. This will strengthen carbon sinks, reverse deforestation, and reduce land degradation. Water resources remain under pressure, with annual withdrawals of about 4.03 billion cubic meters. Expansion of coal and nuclear power risks increasing water stress and undermining the constitutional right to water. Kenya is uniquely positioned to achieve clean energy leadership and sustainable growth. Success will depend on coherent policies that prevent fossil fuel lock-in while advancing resilience, competitiveness, and climate targets.

This policy brief underscores how Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine has created profound economic, energy, and environmental challenges, with the first 18 months alone adding an estimated 150 Mt CO₂-eq emissions and undermining the financial viability of renewable and climate-neutral investments. Nearly two-thirds of Ukraine’s dispatchable power generation capacity has been occupied, damaged, or destroyed, while sustained missile and drone strikes have caused rolling blackouts affecting millions and limiting access to electricity nationwide. With the power sector—Ukraine’s largest source of emissions—severely compromised, the war has shifted the urgency from modernization to national security, making the reconstruction of a decentralized, resilient, and sustainable electricity system a strategic imperative for the country’s economic and energy future.

This policy brief highlights Sri Lanka’s pursuit of carbon neutrality by 2050 amid overlapping challenges from an economic crisis, lingering COVID-19 impacts, and mounting climate risks. With the energy sector (including transport) responsible for nearly 60% of national emissions and heavy reliance on imported petroleum creating vulnerabilities, the government is prioritizing investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and disaster risk reduction to drive resilience and recovery. Sri Lanka’s updated NDCs commit to a 14.5% emissions reduction by 2030 and increased forest cover, but a clear gap remains between near-term action and the 2050 net-zero target. Given competing demands on limited land and water resources across energy, agriculture, and forestry, integrated analytical approaches such as the CLEWs model are essential for designing coherent, cross-sectoral policies that advance both climate and development objectives.

The brief documents a core component of the IAM COMPACT project, our Policy Response Mechanism (PRM), a valuable tool at the science-policy interface, a co-creation process that has facilitated not only our internal exchanges, but also our collaboration with external stakeholders. It also investigates how the PRM enabled a series of exchanges with different groups of external actors in our pilot countries, including not only policy advice and modelling priorities but also training of new experts through workshops and capacity development activities. 

This policy brief, part of the Global Effects theme within IAM COMPACT, investigates how supply chain constraints and geopolitical uncertainties may hinder the EU’s decarbonisation efforts. Using three leading Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), the analysis evaluates the implications of limitations and constraints in the uptake of key low-carbon technologies by developing four scenarios. The baseline scenario (NDC-LTT) implements the NDC targets for 2030 and the long-term mitigation goals for 2050. Three additional scenarios examine the impact of constraints on the uptake of 1) renewable energy and batteries, 2) biomass, and 3) carbon capture and storage (CCS), all critical for decarbonisation. The brief aims to evaluate the risks and challenges faced by the EU's decarbonisation pathways and suggests strategies to enhance resilience against external disruptions. 

Key questions include: 

1. How do supply chain constraints impact the ramp-up of clean technologies? 

2. Are specific configurations of the EU’s energy system more vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions? 

3. How resilient are transition pathways if certain low-carbon technologies are unavailable? 

This brief aims to provide policy-relevant insights to stakeholders and policymakers to better anticipate and address the risks posed by geopolitical and technological factors, ensuring a cost-efficient and resilient transition to a low-carbon economy. It emphasises the importance of building resilient, net-zero energy systems that can adapt to challenges and uncertainties. The results provide insights into the CO2 emissions, primary energy supply, and electricity generation implications of geopolitical constraints and technology limitations. The findings highlight the importance of strategic planning, global cooperation, and diversification of supply chains to mitigate the risks associated with the decarbonisation challenge. The analysis shows that EU decarbonisation is heavily reliant on: 

• the supply of zero-emission electricity (which underscores risks in renewable energy deployment, critical materials, grid infrastructure, and energy storage), 

• low-carbon technologies and fuels for transportation (challenges in accelerating the upscale of electric vehicles and low-carbon fuels), 

• slower decarbonisation in industry and power generation (dependency on CCS and bioenergy). 

Moreover, policymakers need to explore alternative strategies to ensure the robustness and resilience of the EU’s transition towards a low-carbon future.

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16032532

This policy brief is part of the theme Optimal Transition, which investigates how to best manage the energy transition in Europe, through national and European climate and energy targets, decarbonisation of electricity generation, and electrification of energy services, guided by the following research question: What are the different cost, energy security, and resilience metrics and how do they compare for different scenarios?

The consultative process helped us evaluate the relevance of policy issues, refine the scope of research questions, and establish a balanced group of stakeholders to participate. We conducted one workshop under each theme alongside the corresponding core working group to consult stakeholders on our scenario design and co-define desired outputs as well as a key set of joint input assumptions. During the workshop conducted under this theme, we sought feedback on the scenario design, inputs, and projections of two proposed modelling studies. The participating stakeholders, including representatives from the DG ENER, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), and the renewable energy industry, provided insights on the most policy relevant aspects of energy system security, resilience and flexibility. Suggestions were also offered to IAM COMPACT partners on specific metrics that could be used to assess model results along these criteria.

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.16039602 

This policy brief is part of the theme Global Effects, which considers trade and macroeconomic issues and their effects on European decarbonisation. During the workshop conducted under this theme, we sought feedback on the scenario design, inputs, and projections of two proposed modelling studies. Following an in-depth discussion on uncertainty factors and how these may play out, the 20 participating stakeholders—among others from DG Trade, DG ECFIN, the European Central Bank, and the National Bank of Belgium—were asked to also fill out a survey on how perceived costs may evolve for different technologies and countries around the world. The study presented here looked at how regionally and technologically differentiated cost of capital projections could affect decarbonisation pathways in Europe and around the world. 

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15054167

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has created an energy crisis, which has impacted the EU, given its significant reliance on Russian natural gas. This brief explores three scenarios to replace Russian natural gas: increasing gas imports from other regions, increasing domestic production, and accelerating energy efficiency. The scenarios are benchmarked against a baseline scenario that reflects mitigation efforts implied by Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-Term Strategies. The brief aims to provide insights into the trade-offs between the different approaches to replacing Russian gas and their implications for energy sustainability, affordability, and emissions.

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10430866

The purpose of this policy brief is to provide external stakeholders with an overview of the envisaged modelling process of the IAM COMPACT project and explain the stakeholder engagement strategy that will form a core part of this process. The strategy revolves around the policy response mechanism, a process that will facilitate constructive dialogue and knowledge sharing between stakeholders and modellers with the aim of generating policy-relevant insights from the IAM COMPACT research agenda.

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10430840